***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 54.2 55.5 48.0 123.0 70.3 61.3 20.5 33.6 50.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 46.1 58.6 42.3 117.4 68.4 60.8 28.9 41.3 55.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 56.1 57.1 47.6 120.2 69.4 61.5 25.7 38.2 53.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 43.9 55.4 42.1 111.4 66.0 57.7 23.1 37.5 55.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 31.1 42.5 42.2 122.6 70.2 61.8 16.4 26.3 38.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 53.1 57.1 52.5 127.8 72.2 62.0 22.9 35.0 49.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 41.6 54.2 42.9 120.3 69.5 61.0 26.1 37.6 50.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 60.9 71.5 45.2 111.7 65.7 58.8 38.8 54.0 71.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 44.2 56.3 45.2 119.6 69.1 61.7 26.0 38.2 52.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 49.1 59.8 50.0 115.8 67.5 61.2 31.6 43.9 58.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 39.1 50.2 39.2 120.2 69.4 61.7 23.2 34.1 46.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 34.4 43.7 35.7 115.4 67.4 59.3 19.1 29.7 42.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 34.0 46.0 38.4 120.9 69.6 59.9 18.6 29.1 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 56.8 69.5 58.5 115.3 67.4 60.4 35.2 50.0 67.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 32.2 43.3 36.8 112.6 67.0 56.3 14.2 25.9 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 32.4 42.1 37.3 116.1 67.9 59.3 18.1 28.1 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 44.9 56.2 41.8 120.8 69.6 61.9 30.1 40.8 52.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 53.7 63.7 57.3 113.7 66.5 60.4 35.3 48.3 63.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 42.7 56.9 43.3 115.0 67.6 60.3 21.6 36.1 54.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 50.5 57.0 55.1 111.2 64.7 58.1 32.3 44.3 58.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 57.8 58.2 45.6 120.5 69.5 61.2 28.1 40.2 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 45.1 55.5 43.8 119.6 69.2 62.3 30.9 41.2 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 39.9 50.7 45.2 112.0 66.3 59.3 20.3 33.5 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 54.7 65.2 54.2 115.9 67.5 60.8 37.0 49.6 63.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 39.9 52.7 50.2 123.0 70.3 61.1 23.2 34.6 48.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 30.4 39.1 30.2 109.2 65.3 55.1 15.3 26.0 39.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 48.2 62.5 51.1 122.1 70.0 60.8 28.8 41.8 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 32.9 43.7 40.3 114.0 67.3 58.7 16.9 28.1 42.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 65.8 75.8 59.5 113.6 66.2 59.8 46.0 59.9 75.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 34.2 45.4 43.8 116.2 68.0 60.4 19.2 30.1 43.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------