***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 16.8 19.1 0.7 62.9 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.4 18.7 0.3 57.3 56.7 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 19.1 19.0 19.0 0.7 64.9 63.0 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 15.1 15.5 17.9 1.4 78.6 75.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.2 17.8 1.1 76.1 72.6 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 14.8 15.9 16.6 2.0 92.2 87.0 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.7 18.8 0.3 55.5 55.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 10.5 10.9 15.7 1.3 79.6 75.3 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.9 17.1 18.1 1.2 77.1 72.8 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.1 16.4 1.2 77.6 73.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 16.5 16.8 17.3 1.2 78.4 74.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 14.7 15.2 16.6 1.4 82.6 77.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.9 16.7 1.6 88.0 82.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.4 17.8 1.0 73.0 69.5 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 18.3 18.9 19.7 1.5 83.5 79.2 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 17.4 18.3 17.5 1.6 86.0 81.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.3 18.4 0.4 58.9 57.8 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.3 15.3 1.1 76.2 71.8 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 16.9 16.7 18.9 0.6 63.2 61.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.4 13.3 1.0 75.7 71.6 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.6 18.8 0.8 67.1 64.8 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.2 18.5 0.4 59.2 58.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.8 19.2 1.2 73.8 70.2 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.3 17.6 1.1 76.0 71.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.8 18.4 0.9 67.8 65.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.9 16.9 16.3 1.9 89.5 85.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.0 18.6 0.8 65.6 63.9 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.9 16.5 18.8 1.6 83.1 79.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.7 14.7 1.0 75.8 71.2 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.7 18.9 0.3 56.9 56.4 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------