***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 17.2 19.1 0.8 67.6 64.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.7 19.2 0.9 69.7 65.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 19.0 19.2 19.3 1.1 75.3 70.0 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.1 17.9 1.3 80.0 73.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.5 16.0 17.7 1.4 81.6 74.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 14.4 15.4 16.5 2.0 89.8 81.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.6 19.1 0.7 66.0 62.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 10.2 10.9 16.1 1.6 84.3 76.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.1 17.9 1.4 80.9 74.0 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 16.5 17.1 16.5 1.5 83.5 75.8 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 16.2 17.0 17.5 1.8 87.7 79.4 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.3 15.2 17.1 1.9 88.4 80.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.7 16.6 1.9 90.3 82.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 17.1 18.1 18.3 1.9 89.5 79.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 17.7 18.3 18.9 1.6 83.7 77.0 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 17.0 18.1 17.4 1.9 90.0 81.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.4 19.0 1.1 74.3 67.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.1 15.9 15.8 1.6 85.8 77.7 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.0 19.5 1.3 77.3 70.6 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.8 11.4 14.2 1.5 81.9 74.7 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.5 18.6 1.1 74.7 69.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.6 19.2 1.4 81.3 72.7 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.3 17.2 19.7 1.8 87.0 78.0 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 16.9 17.7 17.9 1.7 87.4 78.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.9 17.9 1.1 73.4 69.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 15.7 16.5 16.7 1.8 87.2 80.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.2 18.4 0.9 70.2 66.3 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 15.5 16.2 18.5 1.6 84.0 77.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.9 15.3 1.7 86.3 77.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.9 16.9 19.3 0.8 67.7 63.9 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------