***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 16.5 18.2 0.5 60.1 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.8 18.2 0.4 58.7 55.8 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 17.1 18.6 18.2 0.6 63.7 59.0 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.1 14.4 16.5 0.4 59.1 56.8 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.5 16.2 0.5 61.0 57.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.6 14.8 0.7 66.4 61.6 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.8 16.0 18.1 0.2 55.6 54.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 10.0 10.0 14.7 0.9 69.2 62.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 16.1 15.9 16.6 0.6 64.2 59.6 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.8 15.1 0.8 67.0 61.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.4 16.0 0.8 67.5 61.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.6 15.6 0.9 70.7 63.7 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.6 14.9 0.8 67.6 62.4 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.7 16.9 1.0 73.4 65.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.2 16.9 17.6 0.7 64.5 60.6 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.4 15.7 0.7 67.2 61.8 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.5 17.8 0.4 60.3 56.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.3 14.5 0.8 69.2 63.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 0.7 65.3 59.8 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.0 12.9 0.8 67.0 61.4 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.4 17.4 0.5 61.4 57.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.6 18.1 0.8 67.4 60.6 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.8 18.5 1.1 73.8 65.2 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.3 16.5 0.9 71.1 63.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.8 16.8 0.6 62.9 58.6 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.9 15.1 0.7 66.1 61.4 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.3 17.5 0.5 61.4 57.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.4 17.0 0.5 62.0 58.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.1 13.9 0.9 69.9 63.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.2 18.3 0.4 58.1 55.5 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------