***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 16.4 18.4 0.5 67.9 63.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.1 18.4 0.5 66.8 61.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.5 18.7 18.5 0.7 74.7 68.3 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 14.3 14.7 17.1 0.9 80.1 73.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.1 16.8 0.9 80.9 74.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.8 14.4 15.5 1.4 91.7 84.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.2 18.4 0.4 62.5 58.4 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.6 10.2 15.1 1.1 86.7 78.9 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.4 17.1 0.9 82.9 75.8 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.9 16.3 15.6 1.0 85.4 77.9 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.1 16.5 1.1 87.5 79.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.7 14.3 16.1 1.3 89.9 82.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.9 15.6 15.7 1.3 91.6 84.7 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.5 17.1 17.3 1.2 89.5 80.5 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.2 17.8 18.3 1.1 85.7 78.6 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 16.5 17.2 16.4 1.3 90.9 83.6 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.7 18.1 0.6 70.9 64.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.3 14.8 14.9 1.1 87.3 79.5 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.3 18.6 0.8 75.7 68.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 10.1 10.5 13.2 1.0 83.9 75.9 9.2 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.7 17.9 0.7 74.0 68.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.8 18.3 0.8 77.5 69.5 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.0 18.8 1.2 87.5 78.9 14.7 15.1 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 16.2 16.8 17.0 1.1 88.5 80.0 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.0 17.3 0.7 74.9 68.7 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 15.0 15.7 15.7 1.3 90.8 84.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.4 17.8 0.6 71.5 65.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 14.8 15.3 17.7 1.1 84.6 77.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 13.8 14.3 14.3 1.1 87.2 79.0 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.3 18.6 0.5 65.0 60.6 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------