***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 29.9 29.1 0.8 67.2 63.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.1 29.4 1.0 71.0 65.7 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.1 30.4 29.5 1.2 73.9 68.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.7 24.0 28.3 1.2 76.2 70.8 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.1 31.5 28.2 1.2 76.3 70.6 29.0 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 29.9 31.1 26.8 2.1 88.9 81.9 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.6 29.0 0.7 66.4 61.9 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 18.9 19.7 26.9 1.8 84.9 77.7 16.9 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.7 28.5 1.3 76.9 71.1 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 30.2 31.0 27.3 1.6 82.7 75.7 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.5 28.2 1.7 83.6 76.5 28.5 29.5 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 30.0 31.0 28.1 1.9 86.1 78.9 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.3 28.0 2.1 87.4 80.6 28.9 29.8 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.1 31.2 28.5 2.0 88.1 79.6 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 31.3 31.9 29.5 1.5 82.7 76.4 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 31.9 32.9 28.3 1.9 86.0 79.0 29.5 30.5 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.8 29.1 1.2 75.3 68.5 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.2 30.1 26.6 1.9 86.2 78.3 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 29.8 30.3 29.8 1.4 77.9 71.5 27.9 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 25.4 26.3 24.7 1.8 85.6 77.9 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.4 29.0 1.0 70.5 66.0 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.8 29.5 1.6 82.5 74.0 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 29.9 30.8 30.0 2.0 86.2 78.7 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.7 28.3 1.8 86.1 78.3 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.7 28.1 1.0 72.1 67.0 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 30.8 31.7 28.0 1.9 85.3 79.4 28.5 29.5 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 29.9 30.0 28.4 0.9 69.8 64.8 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 31.2 31.8 29.0 1.5 80.8 74.9 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 24.8 25.9 25.7 1.9 87.3 79.0 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 29.9 29.9 29.4 0.9 68.7 64.0 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------