***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 30.1 29.1 0.5 58.9 58.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.0 29.1 0.5 57.6 57.4 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 30.0 30.4 29.2 0.7 61.7 60.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.4 24.5 28.0 1.3 71.6 68.7 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 31.9 31.9 28.3 1.2 70.4 67.5 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 30.7 32.0 26.9 2.4 86.3 80.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.6 29.6 28.8 0.2 53.9 54.2 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 19.8 20.4 26.9 2.0 80.4 76.2 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 31.3 31.3 28.9 1.2 70.5 67.5 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 31.2 31.6 27.5 1.8 77.8 73.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 31.6 32.0 28.3 1.7 77.1 73.1 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 30.9 31.6 28.1 2.1 81.8 77.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 31.9 33.2 28.5 2.5 86.0 81.2 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.9 31.6 28.9 2.0 81.4 76.9 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 32.1 32.7 30.2 1.7 78.9 74.6 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 32.7 33.6 28.7 2.2 83.0 78.4 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.8 28.9 0.8 62.1 61.1 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 30.1 30.9 26.9 2.2 82.7 78.1 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.2 29.6 1.0 66.1 64.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 26.3 27.4 25.1 2.3 84.2 79.6 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.6 29.2 0.7 61.9 60.5 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.8 30.9 29.4 1.3 70.8 68.3 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 30.9 31.3 30.2 1.9 78.7 74.9 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.2 28.6 1.9 80.0 75.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 31.2 30.9 28.2 0.8 63.4 62.2 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 31.5 32.6 28.2 2.5 85.2 80.6 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.3 28.6 0.7 61.8 61.0 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 32.0 32.5 29.2 1.7 78.0 73.9 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.7 26.8 26.2 2.3 84.3 79.4 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 29.7 29.8 29.1 0.4 55.7 55.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------