***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 30.0 29.8 1.2 67.3 63.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.4 30.1 1.5 71.3 65.9 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.5 30.3 1.7 74.1 67.4 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 23.4 23.6 29.2 1.7 73.6 67.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.3 29.0 1.7 74.3 67.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.6 27.8 2.7 84.3 76.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 29.9 29.8 29.6 1.1 66.7 62.8 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 18.6 19.4 27.8 2.3 81.0 72.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.6 29.2 1.8 75.0 67.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.7 28.2 2.2 79.1 70.5 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 30.5 31.3 29.0 2.2 80.0 71.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.5 29.1 2.5 82.0 73.7 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 31.0 31.8 28.8 2.6 82.5 74.7 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.0 31.3 29.4 2.7 85.2 74.0 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.1 31.6 30.1 2.0 78.1 71.5 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 31.6 32.5 29.1 2.4 81.3 73.4 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.7 29.9 29.9 1.6 74.1 68.1 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.8 27.5 2.4 81.6 71.7 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.5 30.6 2.0 77.2 69.8 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 25.0 25.7 25.6 2.4 80.9 71.9 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.4 29.7 1.5 71.2 65.3 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.1 30.3 2.2 80.5 72.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.9 31.0 30.8 2.6 83.9 74.1 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.7 29.2 2.5 82.7 72.5 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.7 28.8 1.5 71.1 65.7 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.3 28.9 2.4 81.1 73.9 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.0 29.1 1.3 68.8 64.2 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.0 31.5 29.8 2.0 77.0 70.4 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.4 25.3 26.6 2.5 82.0 72.1 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.0 30.1 1.3 69.3 64.4 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------