***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 31.1 29.1 0.9 64.2 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.9 30.9 29.4 1.2 68.6 61.8 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.9 31.0 29.5 1.4 70.5 63.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.3 24.2 28.3 1.1 67.4 62.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.8 31.9 28.1 1.3 69.1 62.8 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.0 26.6 1.9 77.0 69.7 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.3 29.0 0.9 64.7 58.8 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.3 19.8 26.8 1.8 74.5 66.9 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 31.1 28.3 1.4 70.4 63.6 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.6 31.1 27.2 1.7 73.6 66.0 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.9 28.0 1.7 74.5 66.5 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.2 28.1 1.9 75.6 67.8 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 32.0 32.5 27.7 1.9 76.1 68.6 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.6 28.3 2.0 78.4 69.2 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.8 31.9 29.1 1.3 70.8 65.1 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 32.5 33.0 28.1 1.8 75.1 67.5 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.3 30.4 29.1 1.3 70.4 62.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.6 30.3 26.5 1.9 76.0 67.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.9 29.8 1.6 73.3 65.3 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 25.8 26.3 24.4 1.7 74.0 66.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.9 28.8 1.1 66.7 61.0 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.5 29.4 1.7 75.8 66.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.4 29.9 2.0 78.4 69.3 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 30.3 31.1 28.2 1.9 77.1 68.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.3 31.1 27.9 1.1 66.6 60.7 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 31.5 31.8 27.7 1.7 73.4 67.2 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.8 30.5 28.3 1.0 65.2 59.5 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.8 31.9 28.8 1.3 70.0 64.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 25.2 26.0 25.5 1.9 76.2 67.4 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.8 30.7 29.4 1.1 67.2 60.8 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------