***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 10.6 9.3 88.2 60.7 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.4 7.0 63.3 50.6 39.4 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 9.2 9.9 8.9 77.4 58.1 49.8 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.6 8.3 74.3 54.0 45.3 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.4 7.7 7.5 67.0 52.9 44.7 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.5 10.7 89.1 60.7 48.7 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.9 11.4 10.2 95.8 63.4 54.5 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.9 7.1 6.2 46.5 44.3 36.5 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.0 7.0 55.1 47.4 38.8 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 7.8 7.0 49.6 45.5 37.9 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.0 5.7 5.8 53.4 48.0 39.6 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 5.9 5.3 50.6 47.9 38.1 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.1 6.6 61.4 51.1 41.6 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 2.5 3.7 6.1 40.9 38.9 31.8 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.1 7.8 85.3 59.4 51.0 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.0 6.4 61.3 50.6 42.1 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.2 6.7 59.7 48.8 36.8 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.6 6.3 39.2 38.0 32.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.4 6.3 53.6 47.0 36.2 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.7 5.6 5.6 36.0 35.4 30.9 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.4 8.3 72.2 55.0 45.2 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.4 6.1 6.6 54.8 48.4 37.4 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.9 6.3 49.5 44.8 35.2 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.5 6.5 43.8 41.0 34.8 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.3 80.8 57.2 45.5 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.0 6.9 68.2 53.9 42.8 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.7 9.7 83.8 58.5 46.4 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 8.1 80.7 57.3 49.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.4 6.1 5.7 35.2 34.3 30.0 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.6 9.2 9.1 84.3 59.2 49.8 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------