***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 6.6 4.9 51.0 48.5 26.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 2.9 7.2 5.8 56.2 48.0 31.3 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.3 6.5 5.9 59.4 50.1 29.3 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.8 11.2 6.7 62.7 53.8 30.3 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.1 65.9 55.4 32.2 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.6 10.9 9.5 72.1 56.0 33.1 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.9 5.6 52.2 47.3 33.0 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.7 13.7 7.2 67.6 54.3 33.0 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.5 8.8 6.5 58.1 51.4 29.3 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 4.7 11.4 7.8 63.9 53.0 32.1 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 4.4 11.1 6.1 63.1 54.8 31.1 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.3 9.3 5.6 67.6 55.8 31.6 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.4 8.4 6.9 67.2 56.1 32.8 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 3.9 9.0 7.8 64.2 51.4 31.4 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 2.8 8.3 4.9 54.3 51.5 29.4 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.0 8.4 6.7 65.7 56.2 32.4 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.7 6.9 5.3 53.9 46.1 32.8 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 4.4 10.3 9.7 69.2 53.1 33.8 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.6 7.1 5.8 58.2 49.1 30.2 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.6 9.5 10.5 73.9 54.8 36.7 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 3.5 8.9 5.3 55.3 50.2 28.3 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.3 8.8 6.3 63.0 50.2 34.4 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.7 7.1 5.9 60.3 51.3 29.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.7 11.2 7.8 62.6 50.2 30.5 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.0 7.7 6.3 57.8 50.8 29.5 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.9 7.8 5.0 61.1 51.7 31.4 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 3.0 6.5 5.6 49.9 46.9 27.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.4 7.8 6.1 59.3 53.7 30.4 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.6 13.5 9.8 69.4 52.4 34.6 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.3 5.3 6.0 57.8 49.3 31.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------