***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 7.3 6.3 66.5 54.3 35.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.4 6.3 66.9 55.4 42.4 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.2 6.9 77.7 58.6 39.5 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 1.6 5.9 5.7 72.2 56.2 33.2 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.4 4.8 6.7 80.3 59.8 35.7 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.8 4.7 6.8 60.8 51.1 31.8 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.2 6.4 63.6 54.3 41.8 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.8 12.1 8.6 92.3 62.7 36.8 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 6.1 7.2 78.1 59.1 35.5 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.1 8.8 85.4 60.5 36.7 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 1.4 4.9 6.1 84.8 60.5 33.2 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.6 6.3 87.9 62.0 33.1 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.3 4.4 6.2 70.8 55.8 30.8 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.6 9.2 82.2 58.8 42.5 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.1 5.1 4.5 74.2 56.3 30.5 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.1 4.8 5.8 77.6 57.9 32.1 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.1 5.9 61.1 52.3 40.7 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.6 11.2 90.0 61.5 40.5 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.6 6.3 70.5 56.6 41.9 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 12.1 13.6 108.3 67.1 43.2 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.3 7.8 6.5 76.9 57.8 35.2 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.5 5.9 60.4 51.2 40.5 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.3 6.6 75.0 57.7 39.8 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.7 9.3 84.8 59.8 40.3 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.8 5.1 6.8 67.6 54.3 33.9 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.3 4.2 5.1 74.0 57.8 30.8 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.3 6.9 63.8 53.2 34.8 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.1 4.4 5.2 76.7 57.7 32.3 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.8 11.2 12.2 97.7 63.6 42.2 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.9 6.5 69.7 56.4 42.0 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------