***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 29.5 26.9 74.6 48.0 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 29.3 36.3 25.5 68.1 43.1 39.3 29.2 41.6 56.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 44.7 38.8 28.3 78.0 50.3 44.5 26.0 38.5 53.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 23.9 35.1 26.6 72.7 47.1 40.5 23.1 38.1 57.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 32.9 26.8 27.7 75.0 50.7 43.8 16.4 26.5 39.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 23.4 35.4 34.1 76.0 49.2 41.6 23.9 36.1 51.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 42.7 35.2 28.5 74.6 47.4 43.8 26.1 37.0 49.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 37.9 55.2 29.3 74.4 49.2 40.5 39.9 56.2 74.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.3 34.4 27.6 69.3 46.6 40.6 25.3 37.0 50.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 30.7 42.9 31.5 72.3 47.6 40.5 32.1 44.6 59.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 20.8 32.3 23.7 71.4 49.0 40.7 22.0 32.9 46.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 16.9 29.3 22.7 73.7 51.2 41.2 18.2 28.3 41.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 17.1 28.8 25.7 71.7 49.8 40.8 18.2 29.0 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 31.8 43.1 32.2 69.6 43.7 38.0 33.6 49.0 67.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 13.6 22.5 22.0 71.6 46.9 39.8 13.1 24.8 41.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 17.3 27.6 24.3 70.9 48.1 40.0 18.5 28.8 41.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 30.6 36.2 24.2 64.0 40.3 37.3 31.7 42.2 53.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 28.0 39.6 37.0 73.1 45.9 39.3 30.1 42.8 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.4 31.6 24.9 67.2 42.9 38.3 23.5 38.0 56.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 30.5 43.1 40.3 80.0 48.7 40.4 31.7 44.0 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 46.2 38.8 26.2 73.8 48.6 42.9 27.5 39.9 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 31.3 36.6 25.6 65.9 41.5 37.8 31.7 41.8 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.4 28.1 25.8 68.2 43.9 38.1 20.3 32.9 49.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 33.2 42.7 32.1 70.4 44.2 38.3 34.7 47.3 61.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 40.7 30.6 29.4 73.8 46.0 40.4 21.9 33.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 14.5 27.2 22.0 73.9 51.5 42.0 15.0 26.3 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 50.8 37.7 29.3 71.1 45.0 40.0 28.0 42.1 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.8 25.7 24.7 73.2 48.0 40.8 15.8 27.1 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 38.5 51.3 38.1 75.1 45.3 38.7 40.4 55.8 73.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 36.8 29.5 28.2 76.0 48.6 44.0 19.8 30.7 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------