***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 17.6 17.9 20.5 1.7 81.6 80.9 15.3 16.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.7 18.5 20.9 2.3 88.1 87.4 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 19.7 20.0 20.6 1.6 80.9 80.3 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 15.3 15.8 18.2 1.6 82.3 81.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 16.2 16.7 18.6 1.6 83.1 82.4 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 14.8 15.3 15.8 1.5 85.4 84.0 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.9 18.5 21.0 2.3 87.1 86.4 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 10.8 11.9 16.2 1.9 90.8 89.9 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.0 19.1 2.0 89.9 89.1 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.1 17.3 2.0 91.4 90.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.8 17.5 18.4 1.7 88.1 87.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 14.9 15.3 17.1 1.6 84.8 84.0 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 1 99 100 16.1 17.4 17.5 2.0 92.4 90.9 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.7 18.7 19.0 2.2 91.6 90.7 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 18.5 19.3 20.2 1.8 88.5 87.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 17.6 18.3 17.7 1.6 85.9 84.9 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.3 19.6 21.2 2.9 93.3 92.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.3 16.6 2.0 90.2 89.3 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 17.5 18.0 20.8 2.1 86.4 85.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 11.5 12.5 14.7 2.0 90.8 89.7 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 17.1 17.5 19.9 1.6 83.8 83.1 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.3 21.2 2.7 92.1 91.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 17.0 17.5 20.5 1.9 85.2 84.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 17.4 18.2 18.8 2.0 89.5 88.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 17.3 17.4 19.4 1.4 78.0 77.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 16.0 16.9 16.3 1.8 89.8 88.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 17.8 18.1 19.9 1.6 80.4 79.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 16.1 16.5 18.5 1.5 82.6 81.7 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.9 16.0 16.0 2.1 91.6 90.5 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 17.9 18.3 20.9 2.0 84.2 83.6 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------