***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.8 18.6 0.2 53.7 53.9 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 18.6 0.4 57.5 56.7 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.2 18.1 18.7 0.1 51.4 51.6 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.9 16.1 0.0 50.8 51.4 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.9 15.7 -0.1 47.4 48.7 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.0 13.9 -0.2 45.6 46.6 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.1 18.8 0.5 58.2 57.1 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.2 9.0 13.7 0.0 50.0 51.1 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.2 15.9 -0.1 48.1 49.2 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.2 14.5 0.0 49.3 50.4 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.6 15.3 -0.1 48.0 49.4 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.0 12.8 14.4 0.0 49.5 50.7 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 13.7 -0.2 45.9 47.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.8 16.1 0.1 51.8 52.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.3 17.4 0.1 51.6 51.8 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.6 14.7 -0.1 46.8 48.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.6 18.6 0.6 61.6 59.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.5 13.7 0.1 51.1 51.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.8 18.5 0.3 55.1 54.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.4 11.4 -0.1 48.4 49.6 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.2 14.9 17.4 -0.1 48.6 49.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.3 18.4 0.5 59.4 58.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.0 18.2 0.1 52.4 52.3 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.5 15.8 0.1 51.9 52.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.3 17.1 0.1 52.1 52.7 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 13.8 0.1 51.6 52.2 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.9 17.9 0.2 54.3 54.4 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.8 16.3 0.0 49.0 50.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.2 13.0 -0.1 48.5 49.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 18.8 0.3 55.6 55.2 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------