***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 17.3 -0.5 41.5 43.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.8 17.3 -0.2 47.0 47.7 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.9 17.4 -0.5 41.0 42.9 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.4 14.8 -0.6 39.4 41.9 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.3 12.6 14.5 -0.7 35.8 38.9 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.0 12.9 -0.6 37.3 40.1 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 17.5 -0.2 47.0 47.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.7 12.6 -0.5 39.4 41.7 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.0 14.6 -0.7 35.8 38.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.6 13.9 13.3 -0.6 37.7 40.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.4 14.1 -0.6 37.4 40.2 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.4 11.8 13.2 -0.5 38.9 41.5 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.7 12.6 -0.6 35.9 39.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.7 14.8 -0.6 38.7 41.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.3 16.2 -0.4 42.5 44.3 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.4 13.5 -0.6 37.0 39.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.6 17.2 0.0 50.7 50.8 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.2 12.5 -0.5 39.1 41.8 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.9 17.2 -0.3 45.4 46.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.4 10.4 -0.5 38.5 41.3 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.7 16.1 -0.7 36.3 39.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.3 17.0 -0.1 48.9 49.5 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.1 17.0 -0.4 42.9 44.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.3 14.6 -0.5 39.4 41.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.0 15.8 -0.6 39.3 41.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.9 13.4 12.7 -0.4 41.1 43.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.6 16.5 -0.5 41.6 43.6 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.4 12.8 15.0 -0.6 39.1 41.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.4 11.9 11.9 -0.6 37.2 40.4 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.1 17.5 -0.3 45.0 46.1 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------