***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 15.8 16.0 18.9 0.4 61.3 59.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 16.0 16.2 19.0 0.8 70.3 67.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 18.0 18.2 19.0 0.3 59.3 58.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 13.7 13.8 16.4 0.3 58.5 57.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.2 14.3 16.4 0.2 55.4 54.5 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 13.3 13.3 14.2 0.1 55.3 54.6 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 16.3 16.4 19.2 0.8 69.7 67.3 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 9.1 9.3 14.2 0.3 61.3 60.0 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.6 16.7 0.3 60.4 58.9 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.6 15.1 0.3 61.9 60.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.1 16.0 0.2 58.2 57.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.2 15.0 0.2 57.4 56.4 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.4 14.7 0.3 60.2 58.7 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.3 16.7 0.5 65.9 64.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 16.6 16.9 18.0 0.4 64.1 62.0 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.9 15.4 0.2 56.5 55.5 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.7 17.0 19.1 1.1 78.3 75.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.9 14.3 0.4 63.6 61.8 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 0.6 66.9 64.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.7 9.9 12.2 0.3 62.5 61.0 9.2 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.3 17.9 0.2 56.2 55.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.7 19.0 0.9 75.4 72.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.3 18.7 0.5 63.5 61.8 14.7 15.1 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.9 16.5 0.4 64.2 62.3 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.5 15.5 17.5 0.2 56.7 55.8 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.7 14.3 0.3 62.1 60.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.8 16.0 18.2 0.4 60.9 59.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.3 16.7 0.2 56.8 55.6 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.2 13.4 13.7 0.4 62.9 61.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.3 19.1 0.6 65.5 63.6 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------