***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 30.2 28.8 28.8 -0.9 37.7 38.3 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 29.7 29.2 29.6 -0.3 46.4 46.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 28.0 28.2 28.4 -1.4 32.0 33.0 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 21.0 21.2 25.2 -1.7 26.5 27.5 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 27.8 27.8 25.7 -2.3 20.9 22.2 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 26.4 26.5 23.3 -2.2 19.9 21.0 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 29.5 29.4 29.9 0.1 51.6 51.5 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 15.8 15.8 23.1 -2.6 17.1 17.9 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 27.5 27.6 26.6 -2.2 22.1 23.4 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 27.0 27.0 24.2 -2.5 19.0 20.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 27.2 27.2 25.8 -2.5 18.9 20.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 26.5 26.5 24.3 -2.7 16.8 17.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 27.6 27.6 25.2 -2.5 17.8 19.2 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.6 27.8 26.7 -1.6 29.5 30.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 31.1 29.6 28.3 -1.1 33.2 34.5 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 28.3 28.3 25.4 -2.4 19.1 20.4 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 29.2 29.8 30.3 0.9 61.3 60.6 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 26.0 26.2 23.4 -2.4 20.1 21.1 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 29.4 28.3 29.1 -0.8 39.9 40.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 21.8 21.9 21.3 -2.6 17.4 18.2 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.7 -1.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 29.6 29.8 29.9 0.5 56.4 55.8 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.1 28.5 -1.2 34.7 35.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.1 -2.1 24.5 25.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 28.4 28.6 27.2 -1.3 32.2 33.1 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 27.1 26.9 23.8 -2.7 16.0 17.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.9 28.7 28.3 -0.8 39.1 39.7 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 29.0 29.0 26.2 -1.8 25.3 26.6 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 21.4 21.6 22.7 -2.4 20.2 21.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.7 28.7 29.2 -0.7 41.1 41.6 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------