***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 27.3 27.7 27.3 -1.5 33.0 36.2 27.7 29.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.7 27.7 -1.0 38.1 40.4 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.3 27.4 -1.6 32.3 35.5 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 20.5 20.5 25.1 -1.9 27.8 32.0 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.4 25.0 -2.4 24.3 28.3 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 26.2 26.0 22.8 -2.1 24.3 28.4 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 26.5 27.4 27.8 -0.8 39.8 41.7 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 15.4 15.4 23.3 -2.3 25.2 29.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.1 -2.4 24.8 28.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 26.8 26.8 23.9 -2.3 25.4 29.1 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.2 27.1 24.8 -2.3 25.1 29.1 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.4 26.3 24.5 -2.4 24.6 28.6 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 27.3 27.2 23.7 -2.6 22.3 26.4 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.1 -1.7 31.5 34.2 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.0 26.3 -1.5 31.2 35.6 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 28.1 28.1 24.5 -2.3 24.3 28.4 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 26.2 27.3 27.8 -0.6 42.5 43.8 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 26.0 26.0 23.5 -2.0 28.2 31.5 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.6 -1.2 36.4 39.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 21.9 21.8 21.0 -2.1 26.2 29.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.2 -2.1 26.7 30.3 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.8 27.7 27.6 -0.7 42.1 43.3 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.6 27.2 27.3 -1.4 34.3 37.1 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 26.4 26.5 25.1 -1.8 29.8 32.9 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 27.0 27.1 25.4 -1.9 28.2 31.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.5 24.6 -1.9 27.8 32.0 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 26.8 27.2 26.5 -1.5 32.8 35.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 27.8 27.8 25.4 -1.9 27.7 32.1 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 21.5 21.5 22.6 -2.0 28.5 31.8 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.3 27.6 -1.2 36.2 38.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------