***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 28.3 28.4 28.5 -1.1 31.3 33.5 28.5 29.4 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.7 29.0 -0.6 39.9 41.4 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 28.0 28.1 28.4 -1.4 28.4 30.9 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 20.9 20.8 25.8 -1.7 22.9 25.6 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 28.0 27.9 26.0 -2.1 18.1 20.5 29.0 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 26.6 26.5 23.6 -1.9 17.5 20.0 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 29.2 -0.4 44.0 44.9 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 16.1 16.0 23.9 -2.1 17.0 19.5 16.9 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 27.6 27.5 26.4 -2.0 19.0 21.5 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 27.3 27.2 24.7 -2.1 18.2 20.6 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.8 -2.1 17.7 20.2 28.5 29.5 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 26.9 26.7 25.1 -2.2 16.3 18.9 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 27.9 27.6 24.9 -2.3 14.9 17.3 28.9 29.8 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 27.6 27.7 26.4 -1.4 27.3 29.7 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.9 28.9 27.6 -1.2 28.6 31.3 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 28.6 28.4 25.5 -2.1 17.0 19.6 29.5 30.5 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.5 29.4 0.1 51.4 51.4 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 26.6 26.5 24.2 -1.9 20.7 23.2 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.0 28.8 -0.9 35.3 37.4 27.9 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 22.3 22.2 21.9 -2.0 17.7 20.2 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 27.8 27.7 27.5 -1.8 21.7 24.2 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.9 29.1 -0.1 48.8 49.3 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.8 27.9 28.3 -1.2 31.4 33.8 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 27.2 27.2 26.2 -1.7 23.7 26.2 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 28.2 28.1 26.7 -1.5 25.2 27.5 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.0 -2.0 18.0 21.1 28.5 29.5 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.2 27.8 -1.1 32.0 34.0 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 28.6 28.5 26.3 -1.7 22.3 25.1 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 21.9 21.8 23.4 -1.8 21.0 23.5 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.3 28.8 -0.9 35.7 37.6 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------