***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 18.2 33.5 26.5 260.2 90.3 80.7 3.9 7.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 21.5 39.5 21.5 240.0 88.6 75.2 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 17.9 43.2 33.7 365.3 95.0 86.2 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 19.8 41.1 35.4 295.5 92.6 87.0 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 17.9 46.0 39.9 389.5 96.2 91.5 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 17.3 30.4 33.3 247.5 89.2 83.2 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.9 27.9 20.9 223.4 87.0 73.2 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 27.3 65.5 47.4 343.1 94.7 90.1 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 18.2 47.1 44.7 416.1 96.8 91.5 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 22.5 53.9 54.4 396.4 96.3 92.4 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 18.7 54.9 43.1 417.5 96.8 92.1 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 17.7 39.3 34.2 328.5 93.9 88.4 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 15.2 34.9 34.2 338.6 94.3 88.4 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 22.5 83.6 49.5 423.1 97.2 88.2 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 12.5 26.9 29.2 305.1 92.4 83.9 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 17.0 35.2 31.8 318.8 93.3 87.1 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 18.9 31.5 18.6 218.2 86.6 71.0 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 21.2 51.1 48.5 348.3 95.4 90.7 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 21.0 48.2 26.6 299.0 92.1 79.8 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 19.4 37.9 46.5 324.2 94.8 90.8 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 17.4 48.4 39.3 390.0 96.1 89.7 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 13.9 27.4 23.7 266.8 90.7 74.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 17.3 59.0 35.5 396.1 96.9 86.0 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 17.8 45.8 44.1 402.3 96.8 90.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 18.4 38.3 29.9 274.1 91.3 84.1 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 16.5 31.7 24.8 300.6 92.6 86.4 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 20.9 39.5 26.4 244.0 89.1 80.2 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 14.8 31.6 35.9 315.4 93.4 86.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 30.1 69.3 46.8 338.9 95.2 90.5 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 15.2 29.6 25.4 272.7 90.8 78.7 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------