***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.3 19.2 14.0 150.1 77.5 61.9 3.3 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.5 23.4 14.8 181.1 82.4 63.7 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.8 22.2 17.1 178.6 82.3 69.7 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 21.6 31.4 16.7 187.8 83.3 71.2 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.3 18.3 15.8 178.2 82.0 69.1 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 18.4 24.1 18.1 156.6 78.4 66.5 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.7 13.3 12.2 149.6 77.4 54.2 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 22.8 32.1 16.9 183.0 82.8 65.8 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 17.6 21.8 15.1 160.1 79.3 64.6 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 19.9 25.6 16.1 164.5 80.0 63.1 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 17.7 23.4 15.8 168.8 80.8 66.0 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 15.1 22.8 15.5 187.6 83.5 66.7 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.7 20.2 13.4 153.6 78.0 59.2 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.3 19.2 18.4 141.0 75.7 60.5 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.9 27.8 15.7 188.6 83.3 68.4 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.2 17.3 14.8 162.8 79.7 65.7 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.7 22.9 14.2 165.6 80.2 59.1 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 18.3 24.8 22.3 185.4 82.9 70.1 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.5 22.4 14.2 169.0 80.3 62.0 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 15.4 19.9 17.2 153.1 78.1 61.8 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 17.5 19.4 12.9 136.3 74.4 57.9 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.3 20.7 14.6 157.9 78.9 58.8 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 12.9 17.4 15.0 157.4 78.6 63.3 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 24.0 33.7 21.5 182.6 82.6 70.9 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.1 20.6 16.3 164.2 80.0 69.5 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 16.3 29.2 20.2 226.1 88.0 76.1 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.1 17.0 15.1 147.4 76.8 64.6 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.1 24.1 15.2 183.7 82.6 68.8 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 22.8 31.0 23.9 181.1 82.6 71.5 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.3 13.6 13.9 163.1 79.5 59.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------