***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 16.1 15.0 147.0 77.0 57.2 2.2 5.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 13.2 12.8 134.3 74.5 54.0 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.7 18.0 14.7 148.7 77.3 56.2 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 16.9 16.2 174.1 81.4 56.6 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.9 9.8 14.2 164.8 79.8 57.2 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 10.8 14.6 133.5 73.9 52.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.4 9.8 12.4 126.5 72.8 50.1 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 18.8 14.8 145.5 76.2 53.7 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 11.8 14.2 149.3 77.4 56.4 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.7 17.3 15.6 142.0 75.8 54.0 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.8 8.4 11.3 146.1 76.4 50.6 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.0 8.6 12.0 144.8 76.1 52.9 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.6 7.9 10.8 115.2 70.4 45.6 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.0 16.8 120.9 71.6 55.0 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.0 15.9 14.5 185.7 82.9 55.1 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.6 9.7 11.8 141.0 75.6 51.7 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.0 8.2 12.6 133.7 74.3 51.7 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 9.9 12.0 18.5 141.7 75.9 59.4 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 12.0 12.9 132.7 74.3 54.0 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 15.0 17.3 130.7 73.5 57.6 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.0 15.7 13.2 140.5 75.8 52.7 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.4 9.4 13.0 131.8 73.8 53.8 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.5 13.3 125.5 72.8 53.1 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 17.9 16.9 138.8 75.3 59.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.4 13.3 15.9 152.5 78.0 59.1 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.5 7.3 10.1 134.1 74.4 56.7 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.4 18.3 15.5 141.0 75.8 57.7 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.6 10.4 14.5 166.2 79.7 52.2 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.7 16.7 20.0 142.0 75.9 62.1 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.3 15.8 13.4 137.0 75.1 55.0 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------