***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.7 14.5 15.4 175.6 81.6 57.6 2.4 4.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.4 16.8 14.7 167.6 80.4 57.6 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.5 17.7 15.4 165.0 80.0 58.9 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 15.3 24.8 16.8 204.9 85.2 63.5 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 8.5 13.5 15.5 193.2 83.8 61.3 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 11.4 17.7 17.8 188.9 83.5 62.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.1 23.6 14.3 161.6 79.5 54.4 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.9 30.5 17.8 180.2 82.3 59.2 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 18.9 15.2 167.8 80.5 58.5 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.9 15.8 17.9 167.7 80.5 58.1 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 16.4 14.2 183.6 82.6 58.1 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.6 13.0 14.6 186.9 83.2 59.0 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.0 13.7 15.4 187.4 83.4 58.3 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 19.8 25.7 21.1 159.3 79.1 61.0 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.6 17.5 15.8 234.1 88.1 61.6 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.7 15.8 14.9 194.8 84.2 59.7 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.5 19.2 13.1 148.0 77.1 54.3 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 17.0 25.1 21.5 170.9 81.0 62.9 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.6 20.9 14.9 163.2 79.7 57.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.4 22.2 20.8 160.1 79.2 60.8 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.4 19.2 15.1 176.6 81.7 58.6 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.4 23.0 14.7 146.5 76.8 56.9 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 17.8 15.5 154.3 78.3 58.3 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.4 16.7 19.2 161.2 79.4 61.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.7 16.2 17.3 187.1 83.1 61.4 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.0 15.8 13.3 191.9 84.0 61.1 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.5 21.8 17.0 181.0 82.3 58.8 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 10.5 18.5 15.8 215.3 86.3 59.9 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.2 26.1 21.7 167.5 80.5 63.1 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 13.8 15.4 170.3 80.8 55.9 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------