***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 61.1 84.7 71.0 184.4 85.3 78.9 20.2 33.3 49.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 63.2 83.3 63.7 180.2 84.7 76.5 29.2 41.6 56.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 65.9 96.0 81.0 213.4 89.7 83.4 26.0 38.5 53.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 74.9 114.4 85.2 221.7 89.7 85.2 23.1 38.1 57.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 51.3 82.7 85.4 238.8 91.5 87.5 16.4 26.5 39.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 62.2 83.5 83.9 185.8 86.0 79.7 23.9 36.1 51.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 55.3 68.0 59.8 165.5 81.5 73.1 26.1 37.0 49.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 91.6 135.0 96.9 227.3 91.8 86.7 39.9 56.2 74.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 62.6 94.6 89.1 230.2 91.3 86.4 25.3 37.0 50.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 72.6 106.8 104.1 230.7 92.0 87.3 32.1 44.6 59.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 58.8 92.3 84.4 238.8 92.1 87.2 22.0 32.9 46.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 52.6 79.9 76.2 219.4 90.0 84.1 18.2 28.3 41.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 54.1 75.5 73.8 202.6 87.5 81.5 18.2 29.0 42.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 81.6 117.8 105.8 205.1 89.5 82.8 33.6 49.0 67.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 55.4 96.7 75.2 231.8 90.2 83.7 13.1 24.8 41.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 53.5 74.6 73.2 208.2 88.2 82.7 18.5 28.8 41.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 59.1 71.3 58.6 165.4 82.3 71.9 31.7 42.2 53.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 71.1 101.2 110.9 214.8 90.5 84.8 30.1 42.8 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 68.3 100.0 68.7 189.2 86.6 78.6 23.5 38.0 56.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 69.0 94.0 101.9 195.2 89.2 83.4 31.7 44.0 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 66.5 94.9 80.5 214.7 89.6 84.0 27.5 39.9 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 58.1 72.4 66.1 173.7 84.4 74.0 31.7 41.8 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 60.4 94.0 79.3 202.7 88.8 81.0 20.3 32.9 49.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 72.9 101.6 101.7 217.3 90.7 84.7 34.7 47.3 61.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 60.6 81.6 79.4 196.3 86.8 82.3 21.9 33.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 55.0 85.1 68.3 215.7 89.6 84.1 15.0 26.3 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 69.4 90.0 74.0 178.7 84.2 78.4 28.0 42.1 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 55.0 87.4 81.4 228.2 90.0 83.9 15.8 27.1 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 88.9 124.7 112.4 208.3 90.6 85.0 40.4 55.8 73.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 51.9 71.8 68.2 185.8 85.4 77.8 19.8 30.7 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------