***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.8 20.6 22.8 4.2 98.7 97.5 15.5 16.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.8 21.1 22.7 4.2 98.8 97.2 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 20.0 22.7 22.7 3.8 98.4 96.9 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 15.4 17.1 19.0 2.7 94.3 92.1 12.8 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 16.4 18.6 20.0 3.2 96.4 94.7 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.8 15.2 1.1 75.7 73.8 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.0 21.0 22.8 4.2 98.8 97.1 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 11.0 12.3 16.4 2.1 92.0 89.2 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.6 20.3 3.3 98.0 96.5 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 17.3 18.8 17.8 2.5 93.8 91.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 16.9 18.0 18.7 2.2 90.7 88.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 15.1 16.1 17.5 2.2 91.2 88.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.6 16.1 0.8 67.5 65.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.8 19.6 19.4 2.7 95.9 93.6 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 18.4 19.7 20.4 2.3 92.0 90.0 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 17.6 18.2 17.5 1.6 82.7 80.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.3 21.4 22.6 4.3 99.2 97.8 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 15.4 16.6 16.7 2.1 92.1 89.7 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.6 20.3 22.7 4.1 98.8 97.4 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 11.7 13.0 14.7 2.1 92.2 89.5 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 17.2 19.1 21.2 3.1 96.7 94.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.7 22.1 3.6 98.0 96.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 17.2 20.1 22.7 4.2 99.1 98.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 17.5 19.2 19.6 2.9 95.9 94.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 17.6 19.9 21.6 3.8 97.9 96.3 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.9 15.3 1.1 73.5 71.3 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 18.0 21.2 22.2 4.1 98.4 97.0 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 16.1 17.2 18.9 2.2 90.1 88.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 15.0 16.3 15.8 2.1 91.7 89.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 18.0 20.9 23.0 4.2 98.7 97.3 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------