***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.4 20.7 1.8 82.2 72.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.5 19.7 0.9 69.2 62.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.8 19.4 20.7 1.5 79.9 70.5 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.5 15.4 18.3 1.7 83.5 74.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 15.4 16.2 18.6 1.7 84.4 73.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.8 15.8 1.5 83.6 74.6 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 20.1 1.1 71.6 64.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 10.1 10.7 15.8 1.5 83.2 73.0 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.6 17.5 18.8 1.8 88.0 76.5 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 16.3 16.9 16.7 1.5 82.9 72.3 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.8 18.1 1.7 87.0 76.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.8 17.0 1.7 85.4 75.2 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.3 16.0 16.3 1.4 82.7 72.9 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.0 17.7 0.9 72.7 65.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 17.7 18.8 20.3 2.2 91.3 82.6 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.5 17.4 1.6 85.9 75.8 15.3 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.8 19.2 0.7 64.1 58.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.2 15.6 1.1 76.6 67.7 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.7 19.9 1.1 71.8 64.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.9 13.6 1.1 77.6 68.6 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 16.3 17.0 19.9 1.7 84.6 74.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.6 19.1 0.5 60.3 56.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.4 20.1 1.4 78.2 69.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.0 17.8 1.2 77.5 68.3 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.6 17.4 19.7 1.8 82.5 72.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 15.5 16.2 16.0 1.6 85.8 75.9 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.8 20.1 1.8 82.0 72.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.4 16.3 18.8 1.9 87.0 78.2 13.7 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.1 14.8 1.0 74.7 66.9 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.2 20.4 1.3 74.6 66.4 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------