***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 18.6 0.5 58.5 56.0 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 17.9 0.0 49.2 48.5 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.5 18.9 0.5 59.0 56.0 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.7 16.4 0.6 62.2 58.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.4 16.3 0.6 61.4 57.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.3 14.2 0.3 57.9 55.0 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 0.1 52.3 51.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 14.0 0.4 59.4 57.0 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.6 16.4 0.6 61.4 57.8 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.4 14.8 0.4 57.9 55.7 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.0 15.7 0.6 62.1 58.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.2 14.8 0.5 61.5 58.2 12.1 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 13.9 0.2 53.5 52.3 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.8 15.9 0.1 52.1 51.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.9 17.8 0.8 65.1 60.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 15.1 0.5 60.6 57.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.0 17.5 -0.2 46.8 46.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.6 13.7 0.2 54.3 53.2 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 18.1 0.1 52.0 50.5 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.5 11.5 0.1 52.5 51.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 17.8 0.5 60.2 56.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 17.5 -0.1 48.1 47.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.3 18.3 0.4 57.8 55.0 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.5 15.9 0.3 55.4 53.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.5 17.2 0.4 58.2 55.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.5 13.9 0.3 56.2 54.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.2 17.9 0.5 58.2 55.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.4 16.7 0.7 63.4 59.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.4 13.1 0.1 52.8 52.0 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.0 18.4 0.2 53.4 51.9 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------