***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 15.9 16.1 18.6 1.2 72.4 67.3 14.0 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.6 18.1 0.9 68.0 63.1 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.2 18.4 18.7 1.1 71.2 65.8 16.2 17.1 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 13.8 14.3 16.1 1.1 74.2 67.6 11.8 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 14.0 14.3 16.0 1.0 71.8 65.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 0.6 65.9 61.2 11.7 12.4 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 1.1 70.6 65.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.3 9.0 13.8 0.8 68.8 62.6 7.0 7.9 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.8 16.1 1.0 71.6 66.0 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.2 14.4 0.8 67.8 62.2 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.8 15.4 0.9 71.2 64.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 14.4 0.8 68.6 62.7 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.6 13.4 0.4 59.6 57.1 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.9 15.7 0.7 66.0 60.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.9 17.4 1.2 76.0 68.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.7 14.7 0.8 67.7 62.8 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.1 17.8 0.8 66.8 62.1 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.3 13.3 0.6 63.8 58.7 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 15.8 15.8 18.2 1.0 69.1 63.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.2 11.2 0.5 62.4 58.0 8.0 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.4 17.6 1.1 71.7 66.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.0 17.6 0.8 66.6 61.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.3 18.1 1.1 72.3 66.3 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.5 15.5 0.8 66.6 61.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.6 17.3 1.2 73.3 68.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.1 13.5 0.5 62.6 58.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.5 17.9 1.3 73.6 68.4 13.7 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 14.0 14.3 16.3 1.1 74.0 67.3 12.5 13.2 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.2 12.7 0.6 63.8 58.7 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.3 18.5 1.0 69.7 64.6 14.2 15.1 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------