***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.5 17.3 20.2 1.9 93.3 89.4 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 16.3 17.0 19.6 1.5 88.3 83.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 18.7 19.5 20.2 1.7 91.7 87.4 17.3 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.5 15.4 17.5 1.6 90.6 86.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 14.9 15.6 17.7 1.6 92.0 87.9 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.8 14.8 0.9 80.1 74.7 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.5 17.2 19.9 1.6 89.2 84.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 9.6 10.1 15.0 1.2 86.9 82.3 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 16.1 17.0 17.9 1.7 93.7 89.7 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.4 15.9 1.3 87.8 83.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 15.5 16.1 17.0 1.3 88.9 84.4 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.7 14.2 15.9 1.3 87.9 83.6 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.8 14.9 0.7 74.0 69.5 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.4 16.9 17.2 1.1 84.9 79.4 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 17.3 18.1 19.0 1.6 91.7 87.6 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 16.4 16.8 16.2 1.1 84.3 79.5 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.3 19.3 1.4 87.6 82.8 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.6 14.8 1.0 83.5 78.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.2 16.8 19.7 1.6 89.4 84.6 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 10.1 10.4 12.7 0.9 83.2 78.4 9.1 9.5 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 15.8 16.3 19.1 1.6 91.3 87.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.6 15.9 19.1 1.2 83.1 78.8 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.2 19.8 1.8 92.5 88.1 14.7 15.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.2 16.7 17.2 1.3 87.5 82.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 16.0 16.7 18.9 1.8 92.7 88.8 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.1 14.7 0.9 79.5 74.0 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 16.5 17.5 19.5 1.9 93.4 89.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 14.8 15.4 17.7 1.5 89.4 85.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.0 14.1 0.9 82.0 77.1 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.6 17.2 20.1 1.7 90.0 85.5 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------