***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 30.5 31.3 32.2 2.4 78.2 71.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.3 31.6 1.7 70.6 64.7 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 30.1 30.7 32.3 2.2 75.8 68.9 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 23.8 25.2 30.7 3.3 86.8 80.1 20.8 22.1 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.1 31.0 2.7 80.9 74.0 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.5 28.2 2.4 81.0 74.9 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.1 31.5 1.7 71.1 65.0 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 18.8 19.4 28.8 2.5 79.1 72.3 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.3 31.7 2.8 82.4 74.9 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.2 30.8 29.7 2.5 78.9 72.1 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 30.7 31.5 31.1 2.7 80.6 73.6 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 29.9 30.7 30.2 2.7 81.2 74.2 27.3 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 31.1 31.7 30.2 2.4 79.4 73.2 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.2 30.0 1.7 71.4 65.2 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 31.5 32.9 32.7 3.5 89.4 82.8 28.8 29.9 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 31.9 32.9 30.8 2.8 83.0 76.2 29.2 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.5 31.0 1.5 68.3 62.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.5 28.6 2.2 75.8 69.1 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.1 31.8 1.8 72.0 65.9 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.7 26.4 2.1 76.5 70.0 22.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 30.3 31.1 32.1 2.4 78.4 71.3 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.7 30.5 1.0 62.5 58.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.5 32.1 2.3 76.8 69.4 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.7 30.1 30.4 2.1 74.6 67.9 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.6 31.2 2.6 80.3 73.3 28.3 29.4 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.9 30.1 3.0 84.7 78.1 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.9 31.5 2.4 79.1 71.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 31.4 32.6 31.4 3.2 87.0 80.6 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 24.5 24.7 27.5 1.9 72.6 66.4 22.2 23.3 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.3 31.9 1.9 72.8 66.5 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------