***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 30.3 31.1 30.5 2.5 79.7 73.3 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.4 30.2 2.3 77.1 70.8 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.7 30.7 2.5 78.7 72.6 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 23.7 25.2 29.4 3.2 86.1 79.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.2 32.2 29.3 2.8 81.8 75.7 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.1 26.2 2.0 75.7 70.4 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 29.3 30.0 30.2 2.3 77.7 71.1 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 19.0 19.7 27.2 2.5 78.8 73.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.4 29.5 2.9 81.8 75.7 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 30.3 31.2 28.1 2.7 80.2 74.4 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 30.8 31.7 29.0 2.8 81.4 75.5 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 30.1 30.7 28.6 2.6 79.3 73.8 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 31.2 31.6 27.7 2.2 76.6 71.7 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.5 28.6 2.6 79.1 72.8 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 31.1 32.5 30.0 3.0 86.1 79.5 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 31.9 32.8 28.7 2.7 81.2 75.4 28.6 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.6 29.9 2.2 76.4 69.9 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.0 27.3 2.7 79.1 73.2 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.4 30.1 30.4 2.5 78.0 71.7 26.5 27.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.5 26.0 24.7 2.3 76.6 71.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.3 31.3 30.1 2.6 79.7 73.9 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 29.5 29.9 29.6 2.1 75.3 69.1 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.4 30.6 2.8 80.3 73.7 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.5 28.8 2.7 79.5 73.5 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.5 31.7 29.3 2.8 82.2 75.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 30.7 31.4 28.2 2.4 79.4 73.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.8 29.7 2.6 81.0 74.4 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 31.3 32.6 29.5 3.0 85.1 78.6 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 24.9 25.4 26.1 2.4 76.7 71.3 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.3 30.4 2.4 77.6 71.3 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------