***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.7 1.4 15.1 20.8 13.3 3.5 7.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 1.8 2.4 1.5 18.3 24.7 16.2 3.7 8.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 1.8 1.6 1.1 12.0 19.5 12.7 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 1.2 0.7 1.3 11.1 15.6 11.4 3.0 7.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 1.4 1.0 1.0 9.5 16.3 11.2 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.4 0.8 6.1 8.1 6.7 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.8 21.7 27.4 17.4 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.6 12.3 15.7 12.5 4.4 9.5 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 1.4 1.1 1.2 10.6 18.3 12.1 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.2 1.5 10.6 16.2 12.1 4.1 8.9 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.0 9.3 16.6 10.4 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.2 11.0 16.1 11.3 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.6 0.7 6.4 12.3 7.0 2.8 5.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.9 16.5 23.1 15.3 3.0 7.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.3 0.5 6.0 12.4 6.8 2.0 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.1 0.9 8.5 13.9 9.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.0 24.6 28.7 20.2 4.2 8.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.4 1.8 12.1 16.4 12.8 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 1.7 2.0 1.4 16.6 23.7 16.1 3.6 8.3 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 2.4 1.7 1.9 12.3 14.3 12.4 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.3 12.5 20.9 12.6 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 2.0 3.3 2.3 28.2 32.9 21.2 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 1.6 1.6 1.5 16.4 23.1 16.3 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 2.7 2.4 1.7 14.5 21.3 13.9 4.6 9.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.3 13.0 19.8 11.9 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 1.6 1.6 1.2 12.2 17.6 10.8 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 1.7 1.3 1.6 16.7 21.7 13.3 2.9 7.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 1.3 0.6 0.9 8.0 12.7 8.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 2.6 1.7 1.9 13.2 17.0 13.7 4.9 10.3 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 1.4 1.5 1.3 14.5 21.4 13.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------