***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 7.4 71.2 55.5 40.5 3.0 6.6 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.2 8.1 75.6 57.2 43.7 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.0 7.6 72.2 54.5 40.6 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.8 5.9 61.4 51.9 37.7 4.4 9.2 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.0 6.4 5.6 57.7 49.1 34.5 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.0 8.1 76.7 55.9 42.4 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.3 7.7 73.0 55.8 42.4 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.0 11.6 6.6 63.3 50.4 37.6 6.1 11.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.9 8.3 5.7 56.6 47.9 32.9 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.5 10.2 6.7 59.5 48.9 35.8 6.1 10.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.8 8.8 6.3 61.1 49.6 35.7 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.0 6.2 70.8 54.0 38.4 3.8 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.7 6.7 81.7 59.0 43.0 2.9 6.9 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.6 10.9 8.9 65.6 52.7 38.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.6 8.0 5.3 64.1 52.3 37.8 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.4 8.0 6.6 72.7 55.2 38.6 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.2 9.0 85.9 60.6 45.2 3.5 7.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.9 9.7 7.7 61.7 50.1 36.1 5.7 9.7 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.1 8.5 76.9 57.8 44.1 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.8 8.1 72.2 53.1 41.4 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.1 9.2 6.1 60.8 50.7 36.1 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.5 12.9 10.6 96.2 64.2 46.7 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.6 8.4 72.5 56.1 42.6 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.0 11.9 7.9 63.8 51.1 37.1 6.3 11.6 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.5 7.3 61.9 50.9 37.0 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.5 5.7 67.5 51.9 40.2 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.8 7.9 66.6 52.8 39.3 3.1 6.1 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.9 5.4 62.5 52.3 38.3 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.7 12.2 8.8 65.7 50.2 37.9 6.7 12.2 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.5 7.9 74.9 56.7 43.1 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------