***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.0 8.4 6.8 83.4 60.8 38.9 2.2 5.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 7.0 7.0 85.1 60.9 38.5 1.9 4.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.8 8.0 7.4 85.7 61.5 38.5 1.9 4.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.5 4.5 4.5 58.7 50.5 30.6 1.8 4.3 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.0 3.6 5.2 68.4 54.7 32.6 1.4 3.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.3 7.7 84.5 60.6 41.8 1.8 4.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.8 5.4 6.5 77.6 58.4 37.9 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.9 7.5 83.5 59.8 36.2 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 1.1 4.0 6.0 70.3 55.8 33.3 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 2.0 7.0 7.6 76.0 57.5 35.5 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 1.1 3.7 5.2 72.3 56.0 32.9 1.5 3.0 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.0 5.9 85.6 60.2 33.5 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.5 4.6 6.0 83.9 60.3 36.4 1.4 3.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 2.7 10.4 9.6 89.6 62.4 37.8 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.8 4.3 62.8 53.4 32.6 1.2 3.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.2 4.0 5.2 74.2 56.9 33.7 1.3 3.0 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.6 4.3 6.4 73.3 56.5 35.1 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 1.5 5.4 9.3 81.9 59.4 35.4 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 1.8 7.3 7.3 87.6 62.0 38.6 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.5 8.2 9.7 84.9 59.1 35.8 2.8 5.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 1.6 6.5 5.9 73.4 56.8 34.3 1.9 4.8 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.4 6.7 73.3 56.1 32.7 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.8 7.5 88.6 62.3 37.6 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 2.1 7.9 8.9 84.6 61.1 37.4 2.4 5.2 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.3 5.8 70.5 55.6 36.8 1.4 3.3 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.1 4.0 5.0 89.7 62.1 37.7 1.2 2.5 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 10.1 6.8 79.2 59.2 38.6 3.1 7.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.0 3.0 4.7 64.0 53.2 32.2 1.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.4 8.3 10.1 85.9 60.0 36.7 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.0 7.5 7.2 86.2 61.3 39.4 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------