***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.2 8.1 82.0 60.0 35.2 2.1 4.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.0 10.2 9.0 86.9 62.0 36.2 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.5 9.9 8.6 82.1 59.9 34.8 2.7 6.5 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.2 7.6 5.6 52.0 49.9 30.5 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.7 5.9 58.7 51.8 28.7 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.6 5.9 6.3 50.4 48.4 31.0 3.0 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.5 11.4 8.7 86.5 61.8 36.5 2.7 6.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.2 11.5 7.6 66.7 53.6 31.8 4.7 10.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.2 7.5 6.4 60.4 52.5 28.8 2.4 6.7 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.8 7.4 7.7 62.9 52.5 31.2 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.5 7.0 6.0 65.0 54.6 31.5 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.3 5.6 6.1 67.0 54.8 31.0 2.6 4.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.0 5.7 5.9 57.1 51.5 30.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.4 11.6 9.4 67.8 54.1 33.7 4.5 9.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.4 4.9 52.0 51.2 30.6 1.7 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.2 6.4 5.6 58.8 52.8 31.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 4.0 13.2 8.5 81.9 60.6 35.8 5.0 9.3 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.5 9.3 8.9 61.9 51.1 32.0 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.1 11.2 8.9 84.8 61.3 36.3 3.5 7.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.2 10.4 9.8 69.8 54.0 35.6 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.7 8.0 6.7 65.3 54.4 30.4 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.9 16.6 9.5 87.1 62.6 37.7 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.0 10.5 8.4 77.8 58.7 35.2 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.3 8.8 8.4 63.7 52.5 31.9 3.6 7.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.3 6.3 58.8 51.7 31.8 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.3 6.7 5.7 60.4 53.3 31.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.5 7.7 74.3 57.3 34.3 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.0 5.6 55.5 52.2 31.4 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.0 10.1 9.2 64.5 51.8 33.2 4.3 9.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.0 7.8 9.2 91.2 63.2 36.6 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------