***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 17.5 25.7 23.7 62.7 41.2 34.3 19.9 33.0 49.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 26.3 36.6 25.7 68.2 44.3 36.8 28.8 40.9 54.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 22.6 32.7 24.7 63.8 41.9 35.0 26.3 39.4 55.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 19.1 19.8 17.4 43.6 29.4 26.8 22.5 38.1 58.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 14.4 15.6 17.7 46.5 31.3 27.7 16.4 27.4 41.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.8 22.8 51.0 29.7 28.1 23.9 36.4 51.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 22.6 31.3 24.8 66.1 41.7 34.7 25.8 36.8 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 34.9 38.9 23.3 52.6 30.3 27.4 41.4 56.9 74.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.9 19.3 47.8 31.9 28.3 23.7 37.0 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 28.3 30.7 23.5 49.4 30.3 27.7 32.6 45.5 60.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 17.7 20.8 18.6 49.4 31.7 28.1 21.7 32.6 45.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 15.2 19.5 19.4 54.6 34.7 29.3 18.6 28.2 40.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 15.3 19.7 19.2 52.4 34.3 29.8 18.9 29.7 43.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 30.6 38.4 29.8 59.9 37.4 33.1 34.4 51.0 70.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 12.1 14.6 15.0 45.1 33.5 29.0 14.2 26.3 42.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 16.0 19.4 18.3 50.2 33.5 29.2 19.0 29.8 42.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 29.9 37.9 25.9 68.5 43.0 36.9 32.1 42.2 53.4 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 26.6 29.6 27.8 52.1 31.2 28.8 30.8 43.8 58.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.4 32.8 26.0 68.0 44.5 37.4 23.6 38.0 56.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 26.2 28.3 29.5 56.5 29.3 27.9 30.8 43.3 57.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 23.3 28.3 19.9 51.7 35.4 30.1 26.4 40.6 57.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 28.4 39.4 29.1 74.1 46.6 39.1 31.3 41.6 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 18.1 27.6 25.7 64.6 42.5 36.6 20.9 33.7 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 33.9 39.6 26.8 56.2 35.8 31.8 37.5 50.5 65.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 18.0 22.2 20.6 51.0 34.2 29.9 21.1 34.4 51.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 13.1 16.2 17.6 53.1 33.9 29.2 15.6 26.6 40.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 24.3 32.9 24.1 59.5 38.5 32.4 28.4 43.2 60.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 14.3 15.8 16.6 44.5 31.8 28.3 16.5 27.8 42.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 35.0 39.0 30.1 55.4 31.1 29.1 40.4 55.6 72.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 17.4 26.5 25.6 67.8 43.9 36.1 19.7 30.7 44.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------