***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.3 19.2 0.0 49.6 49.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.4 15.7 18.7 -0.3 43.3 44.1 15.1 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.6 18.2 19.3 -0.1 47.8 48.1 17.4 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.5 17.5 0.6 64.4 62.3 12.8 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 15.2 15.3 17.8 0.3 57.0 56.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.9 15.7 1.1 77.1 73.8 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.9 18.8 -0.4 41.1 42.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.8 10.2 15.4 0.5 63.3 61.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.4 18.1 0.4 60.9 59.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.4 16.3 0.4 60.2 58.7 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.9 17.7 0.3 58.0 56.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.4 16.6 0.6 64.5 62.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.8 16.7 0.8 70.3 67.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.7 17.5 0.2 56.2 55.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.9 18.2 19.9 1.0 74.5 71.0 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 16.6 17.2 17.2 0.6 65.3 63.1 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.4 18.5 -0.3 43.1 43.9 15.9 16.7 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 15.6 0.3 58.4 57.1 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 18.8 -0.2 46.0 46.3 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.0 13.7 0.5 64.9 62.1 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.9 19.1 0.1 51.8 51.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.2 18.5 -0.4 39.9 41.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.9 19.1 0.2 55.7 54.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.5 17.7 0.2 55.9 54.9 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.3 18.6 0.2 54.7 53.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.5 15.4 0.5 64.1 62.3 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.4 18.9 0.2 53.7 53.0 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.9 18.3 0.9 71.9 68.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.9 14.8 0.4 59.9 58.2 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.1 19.0 -0.4 42.1 43.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------