***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.5 18.9 -0.5 41.0 42.4 15.1 15.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.0 18.6 -0.5 40.7 42.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.5 19.2 -0.5 41.0 42.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.4 16.9 -0.2 46.6 47.8 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.1 17.2 -0.3 43.5 45.2 13.6 14.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.5 15.1 0.1 52.8 52.9 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.7 -0.7 38.4 40.2 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.9 14.8 -0.2 45.3 46.8 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 17.4 -0.1 47.6 48.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.3 15.7 -0.2 45.6 46.9 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.9 16.9 -0.3 42.8 44.8 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.8 -0.3 43.8 45.8 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.2 15.4 -0.3 43.4 45.8 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.8 17.0 -0.3 42.3 44.6 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.7 18.9 0.1 51.4 51.7 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 16.3 -0.3 44.2 46.2 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.0 18.5 -0.3 43.8 44.5 15.6 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.4 15.0 -0.3 43.8 45.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 18.8 -0.4 42.7 43.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.4 12.9 -0.2 45.1 46.7 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.1 18.5 -0.4 42.0 43.5 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.8 18.6 -0.4 42.0 42.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.0 19.0 -0.1 48.0 48.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.6 17.1 -0.3 44.2 46.0 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.2 17.9 -0.4 42.4 43.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.3 14.8 -0.3 42.6 45.2 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.5 18.4 -0.4 43.2 44.3 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.4 17.6 0.0 49.9 50.5 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.3 12.8 14.3 -0.3 43.8 45.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.4 18.9 -0.6 39.0 40.7 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------