***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 19.0 0.5 59.9 58.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.0 18.6 0.5 59.6 57.9 14.5 15.4 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.6 19.4 0.6 61.9 59.8 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.2 17.4 1.0 70.0 65.4 12.8 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.6 17.2 0.9 67.4 63.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.0 15.6 1.2 75.3 69.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 18.7 0.4 56.5 55.7 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 10.1 10.3 15.3 1.1 73.9 67.9 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.8 17.2 0.8 67.2 63.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.8 15.9 0.9 69.9 65.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 16.9 1.0 70.9 66.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.6 16.1 1.0 73.0 67.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.5 15.1 0.8 68.5 64.7 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.3 17.0 0.7 64.2 61.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.2 18.7 1.0 70.8 66.2 15.3 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.6 16.3 1.0 72.4 67.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.5 18.4 0.6 60.7 58.4 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.1 15.2 0.9 69.5 65.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 18.8 0.6 62.0 59.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 10.1 10.1 12.9 0.9 71.9 66.9 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.3 18.5 0.6 62.4 60.2 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.3 18.4 0.5 59.8 58.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.6 19.0 0.8 65.1 62.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.0 17.0 0.9 67.6 63.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.1 15.9 17.7 0.7 63.5 61.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.0 15.1 0.9 69.1 65.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.4 18.3 0.6 61.8 59.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.8 17.9 1.1 72.9 67.6 13.0 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.2 14.6 0.9 69.2 64.9 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.3 18.9 0.5 58.3 57.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------