***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 17.5 0.3 55.8 53.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.8 17.1 0.2 55.5 52.4 13.5 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.5 17.9 0.4 59.4 55.4 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 15.7 0.6 64.1 58.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.7 15.7 0.5 62.9 58.1 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.0 14.0 0.8 69.5 61.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.0 17.2 0.2 53.8 51.5 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.9 13.7 0.7 67.1 60.1 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.2 15.7 0.6 63.6 58.7 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.0 14.4 0.6 66.0 59.7 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.5 15.3 0.6 65.5 59.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.8 14.5 0.6 64.7 59.2 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.6 13.6 0.5 62.0 57.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.3 15.5 0.4 58.6 55.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.2 17.0 0.6 65.5 60.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.5 14.7 0.6 65.9 60.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 16.9 0.3 56.9 53.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.3 13.7 0.6 64.9 59.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.0 17.2 0.3 56.9 53.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.2 11.4 0.6 65.1 59.3 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.6 17.0 0.4 59.3 55.5 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 16.8 0.1 53.2 50.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 17.4 0.4 59.4 55.0 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.9 15.2 15.5 0.6 63.6 58.6 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.5 16.2 0.3 57.3 53.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.0 13.5 0.6 64.7 59.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.1 16.8 0.3 56.8 53.6 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.9 16.1 0.7 66.9 60.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.9 13.0 0.5 62.4 57.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.2 17.4 0.2 54.8 52.1 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------