***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.1 52.1 51.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.4 18.3 0.0 49.7 49.3 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.0 17.9 19.0 0.1 53.7 52.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.1 16.9 0.5 67.1 64.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.4 17.0 0.3 62.1 59.6 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 13.5 13.7 15.1 0.8 78.3 73.1 12.7 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 18.4 -0.1 46.0 46.4 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.4 9.5 14.8 0.5 70.2 65.4 8.4 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 0.4 65.9 62.5 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.6 15.6 15.6 0.4 67.1 63.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.1 16.7 0.4 64.9 61.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 15.8 0.5 68.3 64.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.5 15.2 0.4 68.1 64.5 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.0 16.7 0.2 58.8 56.3 15.3 15.8 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.1 18.6 0.7 72.8 69.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.2 16.1 0.5 69.0 65.4 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.1 18.1 0.1 52.1 51.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.0 13.9 14.9 0.4 65.1 61.7 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 18.4 0.1 53.0 51.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.9 12.7 0.5 69.1 64.3 9.1 9.5 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.2 18.3 0.2 56.1 54.7 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 18.1 0.0 48.7 48.6 14.5 14.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.2 18.6 0.3 61.0 58.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.8 16.8 0.3 62.6 59.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.4 17.6 0.2 56.7 55.2 14.8 15.2 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.7 14.7 14.7 0.4 66.3 63.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.8 18.1 0.2 55.7 54.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.7 17.5 0.7 72.9 69.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.4 14.2 0.4 64.5 61.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.7 18.5 -0.1 47.7 47.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------