***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.9 -2.0 22.5 25.4 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 27.1 26.5 27.7 -2.8 13.9 17.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 27.5 27.2 28.0 -2.3 20.2 23.3 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.2 26.7 -0.5 42.4 43.1 21.5 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.3 28.5 27.0 -1.4 30.2 32.5 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.0 25.5 0.1 52.3 51.2 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 26.8 26.4 27.7 -2.6 15.2 19.0 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 16.6 16.8 24.3 -1.5 28.6 31.3 17.1 18.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.9 28.1 27.6 -1.5 29.0 31.4 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 27.5 27.6 25.1 -1.7 26.9 29.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 27.9 28.1 27.2 -1.4 31.0 33.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.7 26.0 -1.1 33.2 35.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.5 29.3 27.1 -0.6 40.1 41.3 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 27.1 26.7 26.2 -2.4 17.6 21.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.9 30.4 29.9 -0.1 48.7 48.2 29.4 30.5 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 29.1 29.9 27.3 -0.6 40.2 41.3 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 26.2 25.5 27.2 -2.8 13.3 17.1 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 26.5 26.4 23.9 -2.0 22.7 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 26.7 26.3 27.8 -2.6 16.5 20.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 22.7 22.7 22.1 -1.6 27.0 30.2 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 27.7 27.7 28.1 -2.0 23.5 26.4 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 26.7 25.9 27.0 -2.9 13.0 16.8 28.0 29.2 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 27.3 27.2 28.2 -1.8 24.0 27.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 27.1 26.9 26.3 -2.1 21.5 25.0 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 28.1 28.2 27.2 -1.6 27.4 30.2 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.6 25.6 -0.9 35.8 37.5 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 27.6 27.7 27.6 -1.7 25.4 28.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.8 30.3 28.3 0.0 49.5 48.7 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 22.1 21.9 23.1 -2.0 22.2 25.9 22.7 23.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 26.9 26.4 27.8 -2.7 15.5 18.9 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------