***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.7 28.5 29.5 -0.8 40.0 41.3 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.2 29.7 -1.0 37.8 39.3 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.5 30.0 -0.8 41.2 42.4 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.6 22.2 28.3 0.1 50.9 51.1 20.9 22.1 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.4 28.6 -0.4 44.6 45.9 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.4 26.5 0.1 51.3 51.7 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.0 29.6 -0.9 38.7 40.1 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.3 26.5 -0.3 46.2 47.2 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.8 29.2 -0.3 46.7 47.4 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.7 27.3 -0.3 46.3 47.0 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.0 28.7 -0.4 45.5 46.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.3 27.9 -0.3 46.1 47.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.1 29.4 27.8 -0.4 44.1 46.1 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.4 28.2 -0.5 44.1 45.0 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.3 30.2 30.5 0.3 53.6 53.2 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.8 30.2 28.4 -0.2 47.5 48.6 29.2 30.4 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.7 27.6 29.4 -0.8 39.7 40.7 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.6 26.4 -0.3 45.9 46.7 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.0 29.9 -0.8 40.6 41.7 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.8 24.3 -0.2 47.3 48.0 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.6 29.6 -0.7 41.6 42.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.2 29.3 -0.8 39.8 40.8 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.6 30.3 -0.2 47.5 47.6 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.2 28.4 -0.3 45.7 46.4 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.8 28.8 28.4 -0.7 41.3 42.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.0 27.3 -0.5 43.3 45.7 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.5 28.9 -0.6 42.3 43.5 27.8 29.0 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.1 29.4 0.3 53.8 53.5 28.7 29.9 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.0 25.5 -0.4 45.6 46.4 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.1 29.7 -1.1 37.3 38.9 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------