***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.1 29.6 0.1 51.2 51.8 28.6 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.4 29.4 -0.2 48.1 49.4 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.9 30.3 0.4 54.6 54.3 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.5 24.1 29.2 1.1 64.8 62.3 21.2 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 31.0 31.3 29.2 0.8 60.8 59.2 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 30.3 30.4 27.2 1.3 68.8 64.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.1 29.2 -0.2 47.4 48.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.5 19.0 27.6 1.1 63.9 61.2 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.4 29.2 0.8 60.3 58.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.3 28.0 1.0 62.2 60.0 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.4 31.1 29.1 1.1 64.1 61.6 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.3 28.9 1.1 63.9 61.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.8 31.2 28.0 0.8 61.5 59.7 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.6 27.9 0.4 54.5 54.4 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.8 31.6 30.3 1.3 68.2 64.7 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 32.5 32.2 28.9 1.1 65.4 62.5 29.5 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 29.0 -0.1 48.4 49.3 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.2 27.1 0.9 60.7 58.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.3 29.8 0.1 51.2 51.8 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 26.0 25.5 25.1 1.0 63.4 60.3 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.0 29.7 0.4 55.1 54.8 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.4 28.9 -0.1 49.0 50.0 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.6 30.0 0.5 56.1 55.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.6 28.4 0.7 58.6 57.4 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.1 28.3 0.3 53.9 53.9 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.5 31.2 28.8 1.2 66.4 62.8 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.6 28.7 0.2 53.0 53.0 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.9 31.9 29.9 1.4 68.8 65.1 29.0 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.7 26.1 0.8 60.1 58.4 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.3 29.5 -0.1 48.6 49.7 28.2 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------