***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.5 27.8 0.0 50.5 49.3 27.1 28.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 26.3 27.8 27.7 -0.1 48.6 47.8 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 26.3 28.4 28.4 0.3 54.6 51.8 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.2 22.5 26.9 0.7 59.9 55.6 20.4 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.2 29.6 27.0 0.5 56.9 53.5 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.9 28.7 25.0 0.8 61.5 56.3 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 25.9 27.3 27.5 -0.2 47.3 47.0 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.3 17.8 25.3 0.6 58.8 54.3 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.5 28.9 27.1 0.5 57.5 53.7 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.6 29.0 25.8 0.6 58.4 54.1 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 26.9 29.4 26.9 0.6 59.2 54.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 26.2 28.7 26.6 0.6 58.0 54.1 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.2 29.5 25.8 0.3 54.4 52.3 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 26.2 28.1 26.0 0.2 53.0 51.0 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.5 30.0 28.1 0.9 63.5 58.5 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.9 30.5 26.7 0.6 59.2 55.1 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.0 27.2 -0.2 47.2 46.9 25.8 27.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 25.6 27.8 25.1 0.6 57.5 53.7 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.0 27.7 28.0 0.1 51.6 49.7 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.6 24.1 22.9 0.6 58.5 54.2 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 26.5 28.6 27.7 0.3 53.5 51.3 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.1 27.4 27.1 -0.3 46.6 46.5 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.1 28.2 28.2 0.5 56.0 52.6 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 26.0 28.2 26.5 0.5 57.1 53.5 26.3 27.7 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.6 26.4 0.1 51.5 50.4 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 26.9 29.3 26.4 0.5 57.7 54.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 26.2 28.0 26.9 0.1 50.9 49.8 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.7 30.2 27.6 0.9 63.2 57.9 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.1 23.4 24.0 0.5 56.2 53.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.0 27.7 27.8 -0.1 49.2 48.2 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------