***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.4 28.9 17.4 221.5 87.4 69.9 3.4 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.6 40.7 19.2 307.1 93.8 76.2 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 15.1 27.9 16.7 236.5 89.1 71.8 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.0 28.1 15.7 181.8 83.0 65.2 3.7 8.1 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.5 24.4 16.6 218.3 87.6 66.4 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 16.1 26.2 17.7 182.0 83.2 66.0 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.2 38.2 19.1 284.5 92.6 75.6 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 28.1 51.5 21.5 228.4 88.8 74.1 6.4 12.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 14.6 29.3 17.3 227.9 89.0 71.8 2.9 6.4 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 22.9 44.6 21.9 229.7 88.9 73.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.8 37.3 17.1 242.5 90.3 66.8 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 16.5 30.2 15.2 220.1 88.0 67.3 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.6 26.5 15.1 220.2 88.1 64.3 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 21.7 66.5 24.9 308.2 95.0 78.6 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.4 29.8 14.9 232.3 89.0 66.7 2.3 5.8 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.4 24.7 15.3 219.0 87.8 65.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 18.2 36.1 18.7 255.0 90.2 75.9 4.0 8.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 18.0 30.4 23.0 216.7 88.1 74.9 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 19.9 55.6 19.9 314.9 94.4 77.2 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.7 28.0 23.4 202.5 86.7 73.5 4.9 8.9 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 14.4 28.5 17.6 225.9 88.2 71.5 2.5 5.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 13.6 28.9 21.3 298.0 92.4 78.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.6 40.8 22.2 323.1 94.7 79.0 3.9 7.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 21.9 43.1 20.3 245.1 90.4 74.7 4.6 9.5 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.6 30.2 18.9 212.7 86.3 68.9 3.2 7.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.9 22.4 10.4 166.7 80.7 61.0 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.9 33.6 18.8 218.6 86.9 70.3 2.9 6.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.0 18.1 16.0 205.7 86.0 66.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 23.3 41.5 23.1 216.4 88.2 74.5 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 11.9 26.4 18.9 291.2 92.7 75.2 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------