***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.3 6.6 78.8 58.6 46.6 2.5 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 13.5 8.3 106.6 67.2 49.5 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.9 7.1 96.5 62.9 46.7 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 16.1 7.6 116.9 70.2 45.8 3.7 7.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.8 7.4 110.8 68.3 46.3 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 12.2 8.7 102.2 65.4 41.7 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.6 7.9 86.4 60.8 45.9 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 3.7 10.9 6.8 85.9 60.0 38.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.8 6.3 95.7 63.5 44.2 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.2 7.1 92.9 62.5 41.9 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.8 8.1 111.6 68.0 48.2 3.6 6.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.8 6.7 101.5 64.6 44.0 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.6 11.6 7.5 105.9 66.8 40.4 2.7 5.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.2 16.7 10.0 122.2 70.9 50.9 5.0 9.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.4 6.6 90.4 62.3 40.2 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.9 7.8 110.3 68.1 43.4 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.2 7.7 85.8 61.1 44.0 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.4 10.7 7.9 89.5 61.0 43.0 4.6 7.9 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 13.5 8.5 123.9 71.5 52.2 2.9 6.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.3 8.3 81.4 58.7 42.4 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.7 5.8 81.5 59.3 43.9 3.0 6.8 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.8 7.9 91.0 62.4 46.1 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.7 12.2 8.6 139.9 75.3 52.3 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.6 7.6 99.4 64.0 47.0 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.6 7.7 82.4 59.2 44.1 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 9.1 7.9 110.3 67.0 43.2 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.7 7.5 77.2 57.6 44.9 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.1 14.7 7.3 112.6 69.0 42.1 3.0 6.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.6 9.0 88.5 60.6 46.5 5.0 9.5 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.1 7.5 96.4 63.7 45.8 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------