***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 18.2 9.5 153.1 78.1 46.5 2.8 6.2 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.9 20.2 12.0 183.7 83.0 51.3 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 20.4 9.3 155.0 78.4 47.8 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.0 17.7 8.9 174.6 81.4 45.9 2.0 4.8 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.3 9.4 8.2 166.7 80.2 46.2 1.5 3.0 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.1 12.0 8.9 141.2 75.7 42.8 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.1 22.5 12.3 179.5 82.2 52.2 2.9 6.4 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 3.1 17.9 8.1 138.8 74.2 41.9 3.2 7.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 12.9 8.7 149.7 77.4 48.2 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.5 13.8 9.3 141.3 75.4 45.3 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.3 12.1 8.2 197.9 84.6 44.9 1.6 3.3 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.8 11.3 7.4 175.2 81.4 44.1 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.3 12.6 8.7 193.0 84.0 44.0 1.3 3.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 18.8 12.4 150.4 77.6 51.7 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.5 16.5 6.9 156.8 78.5 38.9 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.1 12.5 8.7 206.2 85.8 43.6 1.2 2.9 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.4 14.5 13.3 187.1 83.4 51.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.4 11.5 10.5 121.8 71.6 48.0 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 18.9 11.3 171.0 80.9 50.3 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.5 9.4 8.7 93.4 63.4 41.5 2.4 5.4 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.4 16.1 8.7 144.0 76.4 46.9 2.2 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.6 15.6 14.1 181.6 82.6 54.7 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 15.2 10.1 146.4 76.8 48.6 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.1 15.8 10.4 138.5 75.3 52.1 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.9 11.3 9.4 140.2 75.8 44.2 1.7 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.4 7.5 5.6 146.5 76.8 38.7 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.4 22.8 10.2 147.0 77.0 47.3 4.0 8.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.4 11.9 8.3 179.4 82.2 42.2 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 12.2 10.4 113.8 69.1 48.0 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.7 18.9 10.7 169.7 80.9 49.4 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------