***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.0 6.4 63.5 54.6 37.4 2.8 5.9 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.0 8.2 81.3 60.9 42.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.5 7.4 73.6 57.8 39.3 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.6 15.5 7.7 110.6 68.7 41.6 3.6 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 12.6 7.2 96.8 64.6 42.9 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.0 8.1 92.1 64.6 43.4 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.8 7.9 78.1 59.6 43.1 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 21.8 8.6 98.4 65.1 47.5 5.9 12.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.2 13.2 7.4 82.2 60.2 42.9 3.6 8.6 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.4 16.5 9.2 91.5 63.1 46.2 5.3 10.6 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.1 7.0 102.7 66.5 44.5 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.8 6.7 95.0 64.7 45.7 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.6 6.0 79.0 60.8 40.6 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.5 19.2 10.3 84.4 62.1 46.4 5.7 12.1 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.5 7.1 6.4 102.4 66.9 36.6 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.2 11.9 6.3 94.6 64.9 41.9 3.3 7.0 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.1 13.6 9.0 93.3 64.3 45.2 4.0 8.1 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 15.4 10.6 86.7 62.1 45.7 4.8 9.8 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.9 8.5 85.3 62.1 42.9 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 17.5 11.1 94.0 64.0 48.1 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.3 7.0 76.2 58.8 39.4 3.9 8.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 19.0 10.3 111.3 69.3 48.6 4.3 9.3 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.2 8.5 85.7 62.1 43.5 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.7 15.9 8.9 79.0 59.6 43.3 5.3 11.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.3 7.2 75.3 59.2 40.7 3.8 8.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.7 4.7 75.8 58.3 37.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.2 6.8 66.0 55.9 40.2 4.5 9.0 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.5 11.1 7.2 108.8 68.6 39.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 19.9 11.0 85.9 62.0 47.0 6.7 13.3 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.2 7.8 75.6 58.7 41.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------